Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x336c…b93e crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-6%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$16
other 19% −$13
sports 10% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.1% -15.1% 65% 52% -13.9%
≤30d 23 -6.1% -15.1% 65% 52% -13.9%
≤90d 23 -6.1% -15.1% 65% 52% -13.9%
all 23 -6.1% -15.1% 65% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 52% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 39% -22.1%
15% -30.6% 35% -29.6%
20% -37.4% 13% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$25 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$48 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$3 -3%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$9 +36%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +116%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $99 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 11h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $35 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $24 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $20 16h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $58 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $38 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.72 · official $29.72 (match) · 45 history records