Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x336c…27ca world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,090 (+6%) realized +$1,090 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$803per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$65
crypto 18% +$1,020
other 9% +$7
weather 1% +$1
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 20 +6.0% -4.1% 95% 5% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 5% -3.7%
10% -13.2% 5% -12.9%
15% -21.6% 5% -21.3%
20% -29.3% 5% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,372) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$5 · ×11.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×217.18 per $1 lost it wins $217.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,090
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage156d
Avg bet$803
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on April 28? May 08 $48 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 28 $46 +$2 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on Marc Mar 13 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 03 $4,373 +$35 +1%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Mar 03 $1,372 +$7 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 03 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $564 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $4,800 +$26 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on February 6? Feb 09 $46 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 05 $48 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $2,152 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 5? Feb 04 $2,150 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 04 $852 +$1,018 +119%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 17 Feb 04 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 7d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $48 45d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $48 55d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $46 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 98¢ $45 101d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on Marc BUY No 99¢ $43 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 97¢ $20 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 97¢ $23 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 97¢ $48 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 97¢ $39 110d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $192 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $48 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 97¢ $134 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $48 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $48 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $48 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 97¢ $40 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $13 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 97¢ $97 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 96¢ $28 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 96¢ $6 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 96¢ $19 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 96¢ $2 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 96¢ $3 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 96¢ $48 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 95¢ $190 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 95¢ $190 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 95¢ $190 110d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 95¢ $48 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.78 · official $48.78 (match) · 301 history records