Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x336b…1233 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$55,468 (+8%) realized +$53,460 · open +$2,008
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%63W / 74L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$6,148per market
Trades / day184.8pace
Fees−$10,282est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$12,826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,555
7 days−$15,543
14 days+$10,755
30 days+$67,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$91,639
other 11% +$55,906
crypto 2% +$11,511
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$2
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -9.2% -17.9% 37% 36% -15.7%
≤30d 137 +21.3% +9.7% 46% 42% -3.7%
≤90d 137 +21.3% +9.7% 46% 42% -3.7%
all 137 +21.3% +9.7% 46% 42% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 42% -3.7%
10% -0.8% 39% -13.0%
15% ← realistic here -10.3% 34% -21.4%
20% -19.1% 29% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$5,555) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +60% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
26.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,274 vs −$3,625 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$12,826
Realized+$53,460
Unrealized+$2,008
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$10,282
Open positions31
Markets (closed)137 / 110
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$6,148
Trades / day184.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 51¢ 56¢ $5,407 $5,934 +$527 (+10%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 46¢ $2,465 $3,952 +$1,487 (+60%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 29¢ 46¢ $467 $741 +$274 (+59%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals No 69¢ 71¢ $526 $541 +$15 (+3%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 42¢ 38¢ $344 $307 −$37 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $284 $256 −$29 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $216 $254 +$38 (+18%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $490 $238 −$252 (-51%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $240 $195 −$45 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $137 $135 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $135 +$34 (+34%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $74 $70 −$4 (-5%)
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No 76¢ 76¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 88¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+106%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 50¢ 56¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the World Cup? No 79¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals No 67¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 16 $851 −$851 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 16 $14,555 −$14,555 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 16 $1,200 −$1,708 -142%
Brooksby vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $460 −$460 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $0 +$6 +1347%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Perricard (+2.5) Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin Jun 16 $219 −$480 -219%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $2,099 −$2,099 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 16 $1,675 −$1,675 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 16 $402 −$402 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Jun 16 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 16 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $5,555 −$4,982 -90%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-2.5) vs Navone (+2.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Gill vs Jacquet Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 16 $11,403 −$11,403 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev Jun 16 $9,251 −$9,251 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 16 $1,459 −$1,461 -100%
Navone vs. Mensik: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton Jun 16 $355 −$355 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 16 $480 −$480 -100%
Jenson Brooksby vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $10,650 −$10,650 -100%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ignacio Buse Jun 16 $625 −$625 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 16 $1,038 −$1,038 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $9,077 −$8,666 -96%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien Jun 16 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Ruud vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Mariano Navone vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 16 $7,800 −$7,800 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14,760 +$29,240 +198%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $600 +$1,400 +233%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $655 +$267 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $806 +$453 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 7m
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 26m
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $11 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $7 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $22 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $22 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $11 2h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $7 2h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $56 2h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $6 3h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 3h
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 54¢ $2,033 3h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 3h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $33 3h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $7 3h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $3 4h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 4h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 4h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $317 4h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $871 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $9 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $82 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $68 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $45 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $2 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $6 16h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,825.99 · official $12,826.43 (match) · 3500 history records