Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x336a…b88d crypto 45 markets active 5d ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$2
other 19% −$33
crypto 17% $0
culture 14% −$1
sports 14% −$46
world 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -75.0% -77.3% 25% 0% -73.2%
≤90d 12 -41.6% -47.2% 42% 0% -47.1%
all 45 -11.0% -19.5% 47% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -10.8%
10% -27.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -34.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -40.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage394d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 14 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Song Gi-heon win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Apr 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18? Feb 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Jan 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? Jan 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 12? Jan 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 14? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 24? Nov 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $874 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116,000 on October 24? Oct 31 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Oct 24 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Oct 24 $840 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Oct 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 US Open? Aug 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jul 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 French Open? May 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 26 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $20 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 6d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 51¢ $14 21d
Will Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $26 34d
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 54d
Will Song Gi-heon win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election SELL No 100¢ $15 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $12 54d
Will Song Gi-heon win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election BUY No 100¢ $15 54d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? BUY No 45¢ $18 62d
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL No 100¢ $35 68d
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after BUY No 100¢ $35 68d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $13 68d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 100d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 142d
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th SELL Yes 0¢ $0 154d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $4 154d
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th SELL No 100¢ $57 154d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $9 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 188d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $9 188d
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 216d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $33 216d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $33 216d
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on November 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 216d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 229d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 229d
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether SELL No 100¢ $31 236d
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 236d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 24? BUY No 100¢ $4 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records