Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x336a…1915
sports · 414 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$8,161 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,179 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,947
Realized+$8,179
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses237 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions11
Markets (closed)403 / 414
History coverage204d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 11 History 403 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$731
7 days+$1,506
14 days+$1,952
30 days+$2,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,937 $1,936 −$1 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,010 +$10 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $900 $894 −$6 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 97¢ 97¢ $600 $600 +$0 (+0%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 80¢ 80¢ $185 $186 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 60¢ 55¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $66 $77 +$11 (+17%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 80¢ 66¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-18%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 65¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-12%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 60¢ $39 $30 −$9 (-23%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 76¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) NAVI Junior 40¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Cleveland State Vikings Cleveland State Vikings 42¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
O/U 59.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
North Texas vs. San Diego State San Diego State 34¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Siegemund vs. Jones: Match O/U 22.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Australian Open Men's: Pedro Martinez vs Novak Djokovic Martinez 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-12-29? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
ASB Classic: Elina Svitolina vs Xinyu Wang Wang 19¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group B: Dino Prizmic vs Justin Engel Engel 39¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
Australian Open Men's: Michael Zheng vs Lukas Klein Klein 34¢ 0¢ $214 $0 −$214 (-100%)
Cowboys vs. Giants Cowboys 60¢ 0¢ $665 $0 −$665 (-100%)
AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Charlotte Checkers Springfield Thunderbirds 36¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-01-10? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $41 +$51 +124%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $531 +$763 +144%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 11 $206 −$83 -40%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $129 +$59 +45%
Siegemund vs. Jones: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 09 $14 −$13 -98%
Siegemund vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $47 +$116 +248%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $22 −$21 -98%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $69 +$82 +119%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $66 +$39 +60%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $409 −$23 -6%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $49 +$37 +76%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $576 +$301 +52%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$54 +135%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $111 +$10 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 07 $267 −$90 -34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $132 +$313 +238%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 06 $50 +$67 +134%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $193 −$189 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 157.5 Jun 06 $117 +$150 +129%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $71 +$35 +50%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $54 +$83 +154%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 06 $96 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $39 −$38 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $406 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 05 $74 −$72 -98%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $355 +$374 +105%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 04 $91 −$89 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $306 −$301 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $306 +$528 +172%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 04 $204 +$309 +152%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $27 +$23 +88%
World Championships: Germany vs. Great Britain May 25 $190 +$10 +5%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $77 +$23 +31%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $9 +$21 +216%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $32 +$8 +24%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Hungary May 24 $4,950 +$50 +1%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Great Britain May 23 $7,794 +$81 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 13 $7,498 +$302 +4%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Ontario Reign Jan 27 $133 +$162 +122%
SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Jan 27 $8 −$1 -9%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Jan 27 $155 −$14 -9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 23 $150 +$78 +52%
LoL: DMG Esports vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jan 22 $111 +$102 +92%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 22 $526 −$526 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$3,257
other 19% +$4,671
politics 4% +$302
world 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $45 44m
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $70 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $186 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $39 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $601 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $25 3h
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 41¢ $181 17h
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 40¢ $350 18h
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 44¢ $41 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $905 19h
Siegemund vs. Jones: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 41¢ $14 3d
Siegemund vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 36¢ $18 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 18¢ $22 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $1,002 4d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 18¢ $15 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $1,939 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 44¢ $37 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 47¢ $349 4d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 62¢ $66 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $56 4d
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Noir Esports 60¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl BUY XI Esport 29¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl BUY XI Esport 28¢ $39 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 17¢ $22 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 14¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif BUY GenOne 56¢ $49 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag BUY Ursa 50¢ $50 5d
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 45¢ $69 5d
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 83¢ $206 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +21.1% +9.6% 55% 52% +22.4%
≤30d 42 +27.3% +15.2% 62% 52% +1.2%
≤90d 43 +26.7% +14.7% 63% 51% -0.8%
all 403 +4.8% -5.1% 59% 42% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 42% -5.4%
10% -14.2% 37% -14.5%
15% -22.5% 32% -22.7%
20% -30.1% 29% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,946.55 · official $4,946.55 (match) · 988 history records