Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3368…2079
sports · 275 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$850 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$409 · open −$441
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$246
Realized−$409
Unrealized−$441
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses116 / 149
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions10
Markets (closed)265 / 275
History coverage32d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 10 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$435
7 days+$435
14 days+$260
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $520 $100 −$420 (-81%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 69¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $24 +$6 (+37%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 66¢ 93¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5 Under 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Over 64¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5 No 40¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-15? Yes 30¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 37¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5 Under 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Emilio Nava Emilio Nava 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Yes 69¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 62¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 51¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
StarCraft II: SHIN vs Maru (BO5) - Global StarCraft II League Playoffs Maru 57¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 46¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Coco Gauff vs. Elina Svitolina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Arthur Rinderknech 64¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2,301 +$456 +20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 +$3 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 +$35 +733%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $23 +$17 +75%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $30 +$10 +33%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $21 +$19 +92%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $16 +$24 +150%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $19 +$21 +108%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $21 +$19 +92%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $28 +$12 +45%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 02 $0 $0 -1%
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos Jun 02 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $67 +$16 +24%
CSKA Moscow vs. Unics Kazan Jun 02 $4 −$3 -61%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Siegemund/Zvonareva Jun 02 $18 −$8 -42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $128 +$6 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $581 +$19 +3%
Monaco vs. Nanterre Jun 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 01 $167 −$35 -21%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka Jun 01 $188 +$12 +6%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 01 $48 +$2 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 01 $76 +$23 +30%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 01 $77 +$14 +18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 01 $402 −$61 -15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $375 −$194 -52%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $56 +$44 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $203 +$97 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $162 +$38 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $240 −$140 -58%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 29 $69 +$24 +35%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $154 −$153 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $64 +$36 +56%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$562
other 29% +$151
politics 18% −$286
world 14% +$66
crypto 4% −$183
tech 0% −$34
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 10¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $104 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $19 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $28 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 40¢ $16 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $21 10d
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 75¢ $30 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $22 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 12¢ $5 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $21 10d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $23 10d
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda BUY Trevor Svajda 39¢ $2 10d
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda BUY Trevor Svajda 39¢ $2 10d
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda BUY Trevor Svajda 39¢ $12 10d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 70¢ $28 10d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $20 10d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 79¢ $20 10d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 79¢ $20 10d
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis SELL Celine Naef 62¢ $0 10d
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis BUY Celine Naef 62¢ $0 10d
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 10d
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $83 10d
CSKA Moscow vs. Unics Kazan SELL Unics Kazan 18¢ $2 10d
CSKA Moscow vs. Unics Kazan BUY Unics Kazan 45¢ $4 10d
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos BUY Viktor Durasovic 39¢ $15 10d
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos BUY Viktor Durasovic 39¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 40% +6.3%
≤30d 178 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 38% -12.7%
≤90d 265 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 38% -13.0%
all 265 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 38% -13.0%
10% -26.8% 33% -21.3%
15% -33.8% 31% -28.9%
20% -40.3% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.47 · official $246.48 (match) · 808 history records