Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3366…339c
weather · 921 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$47 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses765 / 150
Open positions6
Markets (closed)915 / 921
History coverage123d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 915 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 62% −$9
crypto 37% −$38
politics 1% −$2
economics 0% +$1
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 99¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 50¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 211 -2.9% -12.2% 94% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 912 -2.7% -11.9% 84% 10% -11.5%
all 915 -2.8% -12.0% 84% 10% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 10% -11.9%
10% -20.5% 6% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 4% -28.0%
20% -35.2% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.29 · official $10.29 (match) · 2215 history records