Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3365…6eb0 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% $0
world 19% −$1
sports 18% $0
politics 16% $0
economics 11% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 24 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage298d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $8 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Sep 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 28h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $38 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $10 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $29 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $38 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $33 183d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $8 186d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $8 282d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $8 282d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $8 283d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 94¢ $9 283d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $8 289d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $8 289d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $8 289d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.34 · official $30.34 (match) · 79 history records