Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x3362…a769 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$291 (+6%) realized +$262 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$243
14 days+$243
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$413
other 28% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +76.1% +59.3% 48% 48% -4.8%
≤30d 23 +76.1% +59.3% 48% 48% -4.8%
≤90d 23 +76.1% +59.3% 48% 48% -4.8%
all 26 +68.2% +52.2% 46% 46% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.2% 46% -4.5%
10% +37.6% 42% -13.7%
15% +24.3% 42% -22.0%
20% +12.1% 31% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +127% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$73 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$262
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage246d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $60 $86 +$26 (+44%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+21%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$161 +980%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $179 +$102 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 +$73 +48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3,010 +$323 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$139 +1352%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 +$21 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$13 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 −$34 -66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$60 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$178 +178%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $30 −$8 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $280 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $179 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $16 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 11h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3,333 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $3,010 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $132 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $21 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $39 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $36 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 10¢ $17 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.05 · official $181.84 · 47 history records