Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3360…da4b sports 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$601 (-1%) realized −$327 · open −$274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%423W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$464
14 days−$452
30 days−$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$726
other 1% $0
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -2.7% -12.0% 97% 2% -14.0%
≤30d 305 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 429 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 1% -10.4%
all 429 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -10.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$109 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses423 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)429 / 432
History coverage52d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs FOKUS (+9.5) Infinite 64¢ 20¢ $400 $126 −$274 (-69%)
Set Handicap: Schoolkate (-2.5) vs Mejia (+2.5) Mejia 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Set 3 Winner: McDonald vs O'Connell McDonald 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $172 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 25 $172 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $172 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $172 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Shelbayh (+1.5) Jun 24 $515 +$1 +0%
Set 2 Winner: McNally vs Arango Jun 24 $172 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $172 $0 +0%
Remy Bertola vs. Jurij Rodionov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Meza (-1.5) vs Cretu (+1.5) Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun Jun 24 $395 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $115 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $170 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Fruhvirtova (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Tjen (+1.5) Jun 23 $121 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Angelini (-1.5) vs Piraino (+1.5) Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Piraino (-1.5) vs Angelini (+1.5) Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Janice Tjen vs. Caty McNally: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $129 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Papoe (-1.5) vs Meza (+1.5) Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Manas (-1.5) vs Vasa (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Vasa (-1.5) vs Manas (+1.5) Jun 23 $66 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs Infinite (+ Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux (-1.5) vs Berkieta (+1.5) Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J Jun 23 $236 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 23 $203 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $392 +$4 +1%
Florent Bax vs. Chris Rodesch: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $235 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kasatkina (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5) Jun 22 $57 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Herbert (-1.5) vs Jubb (+1.5) Jun 22 $109 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Silva (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5) Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Tseng vs Heide Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Tobon vs. Krumich: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Begu (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5) Jun 22 $125 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Bertola (-1.5) vs Draxl (+1.5) Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rocha (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5) Jun 22 $94 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: PSN.A (-1.5) vs KUUSAMO.gg (+1.5) Jun 22 $184 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Ouden vs Zhou Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Jun 22 $235 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Frech (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 21 $500 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) Jun 21 $67 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Erjavec (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Schoolkate (-2.5) vs Mejia (+2.5) BUY Mejia 100¢ $84 13m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs FOKUS (+9.5) BUY Infinite 50¢ $231 14m
Set 3 Winner: McDonald vs O'Connell BUY McDonald 100¢ $14 39m
Set 3 Winner: McDonald vs O'Connell BUY McDonald 100¢ $15 42m
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) BUY Kopriva 100¢ $100 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs FOKUS (+9.5) BUY Infinite 99¢ $172 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 9h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 9h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Scotland 100¢ $172 12h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $172 12h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $172 12h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 15h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $172 15h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $43 15h
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Shelbayh (+1.5) BUY Dimitrov 100¢ $15 19h
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Shelbayh (+1.5) BUY Dimitrov 100¢ $500 19h
Set 2 Winner: McNally vs Arango BUY McNally 100¢ $172 21h
Remy Bertola vs. Jurij Rodionov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $15 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $152 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 26h
Set Handicap: Meza (-1.5) vs Cretu (+1.5) BUY Cretu 100¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 100¢ $38 39h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 100¢ $18 39h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $115 39h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 99¢ $169 39h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 98¢ $170 39h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $170 42h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) BUY Sharks 100¢ $30 42h
Set Handicap: Fruhvirtova (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 100¢ $4 47h
Set Handicap: Piraino (-1.5) vs Angelini (+1.5) BUY Angelini 100¢ $15 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.88 · official $239.15 (match) · 1079 history records