Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x335f…a778 other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$16
politics 27% −$8
sports 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 94 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 9% -9.6%
all 94 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 9% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage86d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $336 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $370 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $50 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $350 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $321 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $292 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $293 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $315 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $325 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $306 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $317 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $313 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $315 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $313 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $309 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $302 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $318 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $327 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $327 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $597 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $315 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $601 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 4h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $66 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $66 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $190 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 22d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $71 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 29d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $8 29d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 29d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 29d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $125 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $57 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $320 33d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $321 34d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $307 35d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $308 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.01 · official $188.91 (match) · 262 history records