Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x335c…6e62 world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,513 (-22%) realized −$1,496 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%16W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$206
other 21% −$418
crypto 20% −$283
economics 16% −$675
politics 9% −$51
finance 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 57 -14.7% -22.8% 26% 19% -30.2%
all 66 -18.2% -26.0% 24% 18% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 18% -32.0%
10% -33.1% 15% -38.5%
15% -39.6% 11% -44.4%
20% -45.5% 9% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$42 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized−$1,496
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage120d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $500 $483 −$17 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 16 $276 −$54 -20%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $271 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 10 $226 −$98 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 01 $237 +$114 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? Apr 27 $61 −$7 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 3? Apr 27 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 27 $135 −$17 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? Apr 26 $49 −$34 -70%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 26 $343 −$54 -16%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue? Apr 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $210 +$20 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Apr 22 $34 −$9 -28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 22 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30? Apr 22 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $58 −$15 -25%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $19 −$4 -21%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $52 −$18 -35%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 22 $96 +$10 +11%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $36 +$13 +35%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30? Apr 21 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 21 $30 −$4 -12%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $13 −$8 -65%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 21 $232 −$19 -8%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $40 −$27 -67%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 19 $33 −$6 -19%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $10 +$13 +134%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 18 $35 +$10 +27%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 15 $31 −$23 -75%
Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $31 −$22 -72%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Apr 13 $21 −$16 -77%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $55 −$2 -3%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 13 $40 −$4 -10%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 13 $20 −$6 -32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 12 $30 −$2 -7%
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $18 −$2 -9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 12 $18 +$12 +67%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $15 +$12 +83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 11 $15 −$1 -7%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? Apr 11 $26 −$7 -27%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Apr 11 $56 −$20 -36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 10 $30 +$3 +10%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30? Apr 09 $30 −$4 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 09 $30 +$28 +93%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 09 $33 −$1 -3%
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? Apr 08 $90 +$113 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 2h
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 37d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 37d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 3¢ $208 37d
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? SELL Yes 44¢ $151 37d
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? SELL Yes 48¢ $70 37d
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? BUY Yes 54¢ $276 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $275 40d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $145 40d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $126 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL Yes 41¢ $128 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? SELL Yes 72¢ $226 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 29¢ $97 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? SELL Yes 21¢ $53 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 3? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? SELL Yes 34¢ $118 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 37¢ $135 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.33 · official $483.33 (match) · 211 history records