trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 91¢ | $375,191 | $365,596 | −$9,595 (-3%) |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $315,837 | +$17,196 | +5% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 28 | $55,361 | +$7,289 | +13% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | May 26 | $47,100 | +$2,900 | +6% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | May 25 | $113,759 | +$12,441 | +11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $123,280 | −$9,380 | -8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $70,525 | +$4,475 | +6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 09 | $29,927 | +$1,910 | +6% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | May 01 | $87,159 | +$31,707 | +36% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | May 01 | $33,540 | +$5,610 | +17% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | May 01 | $115,607 | +$4,187 | +4% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | May 01 | $66,342 | +$8,018 | +12% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? | Apr 26 | $13,322 | +$40 | +0% |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | Apr 18 | $58,557 | +$124 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Apr 16 | $160,630 | +$12,159 | +8% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Apr 08 | $98,861 | +$3,387 | +3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $64,107 | +$101,808 | +159% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 07 | $25,800 | −$1,362 | -5% |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026? | Apr 07 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $31,476 | +$7,213 | +23% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $8,300 | +$1,360 | +16% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 01 | $85,365 | +$9,465 | +11% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Mar 29 | $220 | −$43 | -20% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Mar 29 | $85 | −$35 | -40% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 26 | $30,333 | −$918 | -3% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Mar 25 | $1,107 | +$140 | +13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | +5.7% | -4.3% | 83% | 33% | -5.2% |
| ≤90d | 25 | +11.1% | +0.5% | 80% | 40% | +2.6% |
| all | 25 | +11.1% | +0.5% | 80% | 40% | +2.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +0.5% | 40% | +2.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -9.1% | 12% | -7.2% |
| 15% | -17.9% | 8% | -16.2% |
| 20% | -25.9% | 4% | -24.4% |