Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3353…0855 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-8%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%56W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$345
sports 47% −$44
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -30.4% -37.0% 42% 32% -23.4%
≤30d 106 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 45% -23.0%
≤90d 106 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 45% -23.0%
all 106 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 45% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 45% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 35% -30.4%
15% -33.5% 30% -37.1%
20% -40.1% 18% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses56 / 50
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage9d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$22 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$21 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $284 −$65 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$6 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$33 -53%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $116 −$6 -6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $20 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$25 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $151 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$19 +120%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $41 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $89 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 23m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $102 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 26m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $34 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $37 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $43 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $33 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $14 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.85 · official $19.15 (match) · 281 history records