Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3351…4e2d sports 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,847 (+3%) realized +$2,060 · open +$787
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%165W / 101L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$931est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,059
7 days+$7,989
14 days+$8,703
30 days+$8,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$2,875
other 8% +$990
crypto 4% −$679
tech 0% +$136
culture 0% −$126
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +34.2% +21.4% 68% 61% +17.5%
≤30d 47 +35.9% +22.9% 68% 62% +18.5%
≤90d 158 +3.0% -6.9% 58% 49% -9.7%
all 266 +5.8% -4.2% 62% 52% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 52% -6.9%
10% -13.4% 48% -15.8%
15% -21.8% 41% -24.0%
20% -29.4% 35% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$394 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1,675
Realized+$2,060
Unrealized+$787
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses165 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$931
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage231d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 53¢ 100¢ $888 $1,675 +$787 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $788 +$706 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,026 +$1,121 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $563 −$554 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $362 −$355 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $565 +$858 +152%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $563 +$448 +80%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $576 −$566 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $564 +$664 +118%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $678 +$901 +133%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $677 +$835 +123%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $901 −$888 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $566 −$555 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $566 −$555 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $452 +$746 +165%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $586 −$577 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $562 −$555 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $463 +$646 +139%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $350 +$531 +152%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $619 +$705 +114%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $901 −$888 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,114 −$1,111 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,234 +$590 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $677 +$771 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $207 +$183 +88%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,344 +$1,726 +128%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $899 +$630 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $675 −$666 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $626 +$164 +26%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $334 +$32 +10%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $564 +$618 +110%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $565 +$755 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $575 +$684 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,129 −$1,111 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $340 −$333 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $444 +$16 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $452 +$630 +139%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $678 −$666 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $448 +$160 +36%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $335 +$108 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $565 +$856 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $215 +$309 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $561 +$280 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $564 +$696 +123%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $420 +$724 +172%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $497 −$490 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $439 +$479 +109%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner May 15 $279 −$274 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 06 $143 +$266 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 25 $212 −$205 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $901 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $788 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,147 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $337 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $689 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $563 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $362 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $565 35h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $563 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 44¢ $576 38h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 96¢ $19 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $1,228 39h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $1,579 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $564 39h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 42¢ $678 40h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1,512 40h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $677 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $901 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $566 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $566 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $1,199 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $452 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $586 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $562 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,109 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $881 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $463 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $350 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $619 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $901 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,674.63 · official $1,674.63 (match) · 591 history records