Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x334f…0d32 sports 516 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$947 (-3%) realized −$1,029 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%234W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$126
14 days−$153
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$690
finance 1% −$185
world 0% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +18.3% +7.0% 30% 9% -14.7%
≤30d 113 +10.0% -0.5% 28% 10% -14.3%
≤90d 249 -10.4% -19.0% 30% 18% -42.1%
all 516 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 18% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 18% -12.5%
10% -19.9% 9% -20.8%
15% -27.7% 7% -28.5%
20% -34.8% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,029
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses234 / 282
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)516 / 516
History coverage197d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+127%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Angels 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $60 −$3 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $50 −$5 -10%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $80 −$3 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $99 −$12 -12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $50 −$9 -18%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $119 −$1 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $30 −$2 -8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $27 +$7 +27%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $79 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $21 +$4 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $70 −$7 -10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $59 +$5 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 −$1 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $30 −$3 -9%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$2 -18%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 −$1 -15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $29 −$5 -18%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 −$10 -51%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 −$7 -36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $30 −$5 -15%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $19 −$3 -17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $30 −$7 -24%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $138 −$13 -10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 −$2 -22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $20 −$2 -9%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $39 −$1 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $29 −$6 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 92¢ $6 41m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 93¢ $5 42m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 89¢ $10 53m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 88¢ $10 56m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 91¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 91¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 92¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 88¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 89¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 89¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 74¢ $6 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 71¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $10 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 68¢ $8 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 82¢ $10 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 67¢ $6 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 60¢ $5 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $10 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $20 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 2¢ $0 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 97¢ $10 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 96¢ $11 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 90¢ $10 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 90¢ $10 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $10 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 86¢ $10 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 48¢ $7 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ $10 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 86¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 2186 history records