Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x334e…2f17 crypto 312 markets active 3d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%103W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$35
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$29
other 15% +$6
sports 5% −$22
finance 3% −$44
weather 0% −$6
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -40.1% -45.8% 20% 20% -42.0%
≤30d 106 -43.4% -48.8% 22% 20% -47.2%
≤90d 308 -18.2% -26.0% 33% 31% -20.6%
all 308 -18.2% -26.0% 33% 31% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 31% -20.6%
10% -33.1% 27% -28.2%
15% -39.5% 20% -35.2%
20% -45.5% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses103 / 205
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)308 / 312
History coverage71d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 +$6 +291%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Vaasa: Jeri Lassila vs Linus Lagerbohm Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1 +$2 +216%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $1 +$8 +822%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $2 −$1 -49%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $1 +$3 +287%
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan BUY Kaja Juvan 31¢ $1 4d
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal SELL Arthur Gea 25¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 35¢ $3 5d
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Arthur Gea 19¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes $1 5d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez SELL Thiago Cigarran 37¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez SELL Thiago Cigarran 25¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez SELL Thiago Cigarran 25¢ $2 5d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher $1 5d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran $1 5d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran $1 5d
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 24¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $9 6d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.94 · official $37.94 (match) · 612 history records