trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 82¢ | 80¢ | $118,179 | $116,640 | −$1,539 (-1%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 67¢ | 56¢ | $119,619 | $100,326 | −$19,293 (-16%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 37¢ | 29¢ | $6,848 | $5,335 | −$1,513 (-22%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | No | 45¢ | 44¢ | $2,415 | $2,332 | −$84 (-3%) |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 45¢ | 46¢ | $2,127 | $2,220 | +$93 (+4%) |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | $850 | $875 | +$25 (+3%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | $153 | $158 | +$4 (+3%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 24¢ | 25¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+4%) |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | Under | 54¢ | 0¢ | $405 | $0 | −$405 (-100%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $6,878 | +$782 | +11% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 01 | $161,010 | +$29,174 | +18% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $75 | +$25 | +34% |
| Spread: Thunder (-11.5) | May 19 | $130 | −$126 | -97% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 14 | $522 | −$111 | -21% |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) | May 12 | $1,612 | −$1,612 | -100% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) | May 12 | $81 | −$2 | -2% |
| 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) | May 12 | $300 | +$23 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 11 | $91 | −$9 | -10% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | May 10 | $411 | −$405 | -99% |
| Spread: Knicks (-10.5) | May 08 | $102 | +$13 | +13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 60% | 60% | +6.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -28.8% | -35.6% | 42% | 33% | +5.1% |
| all | 12 | -28.8% | -35.6% | 42% | 33% | +5.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -35.6% | 33% | +5.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -41.8% | 8% | -4.9% |
| 15% | -47.4% | 0% | -14.1% |
| 20% | -52.5% | 0% | -22.5% |