Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x334a…43e6 other 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,160 (+448%) realized +$1,160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +338% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +296% what you keep after slip
Net edge+296%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days+$1,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$172
world 19% +$1,339
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+296.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.7% -72.6% 0% 0% -94.2%
≤30d 4 +447.7% +395.5% 25% 25% +782.0%
≤90d 5 +338.2% +296.4% 20% 20% +516.1%
all 5 +338.2% +296.4% 20% 20% +516.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +296.4% 20% +516.1%
10% +258.5% 20% +457.1%
15% +223.9% 20% +403.3%
20% +192.1% 20% +354.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +752% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +338% · $-wt +752% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,339 vs −$44 · ×30.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.61 per $1 lost it wins $7.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage59d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $50 +$1,339 +2678%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $150 −$121 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $4 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? BUY No 4¢ $50 22d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $150 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records