Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3345…2097 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$284 (+7%) realized +$285 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$17
14 days+$131
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$236
weather 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.9% -23.0% 62% 50% -4.1%
≤30d 31 +1.9% -7.8% 68% 29% -3.7%
≤90d 49 -0.6% -10.0% 69% 18% -4.1%
all 49 -0.6% -10.0% 69% 18% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 18% -4.1%
10% -18.6% 8% -13.3%
15% -26.5% 8% -21.7%
20% -33.7% 6% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage69d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 89¢ 65¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$37 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $50 −$13 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $129 +$10 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 05 $10 +$24 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $667 +$61 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $531 +$30 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $302 +$51 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $187 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27? May 27 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $368 −$28 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17? May 21 $5 +$14 +268%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $330 +$22 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $245 +$20 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 16? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $191 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $92 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $77 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $59 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $59 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $20 −$6 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $5 47m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $61 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $79 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $37 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.24 · official $39.24 (match) · 145 history records