Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3341…283e
world · 44 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$59 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$225
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)32 / 44
History coverage158d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 12 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $108 $113 +$5 (+4%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $19 $36 +$17 (+85%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 15¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-76%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 16 $11 +$2 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $39 +$17 +43%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $36 +$15 +43%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 19 $13 −$11 -89%
Will Keir Starmer say "Greenland" at the next Prime Minister's Questio Mar 19 $25 −$21 -83%
Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" at the next Prime Minister's Questions? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime M Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 17 $24 −$1 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 09 $30 +$6 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 06 $30 −$5 -18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $48 +$1 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $48 +$13 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $76 +$28 +37%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 25 $46 +$2 +5%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jan 22 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Mi Jan 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 21 $20 +$3 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $5 +$1 +14%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Keir Starmer say "Healthcare" at the next Prime Minister's Questi Jan 14 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Keir Starmer say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the next Pr Jan 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $33 +$5 +15%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $20 +$3 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $16 +$14 +87%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 09 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026? Jan 09 $4 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$2
world 33% +$43
politics 14% −$10
sports 8% +$25
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 1h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 1h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 14d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 14d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 15d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 18d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 18d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 18d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 27d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $5 27d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 27d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 61d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 61d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 61d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 61d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 70¢ $19 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 71d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 70¢ $20 71d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 50% -2.5%
≤90d 13 -29.9% -36.6% 46% 38% -10.6%
all 32 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 44% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% -1.8%
10% -24.5% 25% -11.2%
15% -31.8% 19% -19.8%
20% -38.5% 6% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.78 · official $224.78 (match) · 192 history records