Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x333f…1c3e other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% $0
other 24% −$2
politics 24% $0
crypto 8% −$2
sports 6% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage315d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $48 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 17 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 11 $2 $0 -1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Aug 10 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 07 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $47 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $38 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 7d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 281d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $22 296d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 298d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 298d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 298d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 298d
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $5 298d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 298d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 97¢ $28 298d
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 298d
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $5 298d
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 298d
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 298d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.32 · official $47.32 (match) · 133 history records