Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x333d…e8b7 sports 695 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%276W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day89.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$47
14 days+$40
30 days−$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$590
world 7% +$12
other 0% +$4
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +17.3% +6.1% 54% 53% +1.2%
≤30d 694 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 37% -21.7%
≤90d 694 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 37% -21.7%
all 694 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 37% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 37% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 34% -29.2%
15% -37.8% 30% -36.0%
20% -43.9% 25% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses276 / 418
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)694 / 695
History coverage27d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day89.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Top Esports Challenger 46¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+115%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 352 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$4 +64%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$8 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$6 +64%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$6 +95%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$4 +109%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$2 -23%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $9 −$2 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +79%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $3 +$4 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu Jun 13 $7 +$9 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$5 +75%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$4 +63%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$6 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$1 -16%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $6 +$8 +120%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$8 +128%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$6 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $7 +$7 +115%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$5 +84%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $3 +$3 +75%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$7 +105%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame (BO3) - The International North America Open Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $7 +$5 +73%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $7 +$4 +66%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$6 +95%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$8 +124%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $6 +$8 +128%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $9 +$8 +89%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $13 55m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $3 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $9 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 45¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 44¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 44¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $3 14h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 100¢ $14 18h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $13 18h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 61¢ $3 18h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $3 18h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $3 18h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 44¢ $3 18h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 45¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner SELL fnatic 99¢ $11 19h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY fnatic 50¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY fnatic 50¢ $3 20h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $3 21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 47¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.00 · official $16.00 (match) · 2692 history records