Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x333d…6127 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$187 (-39%) realized −$186 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$166
sports 10% −$10
world 2% −$10
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-68.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -65.4% -68.7% 20% 20% -56.1%
≤30d 5 -65.4% -68.7% 20% 20% -56.1%
≤90d 5 -65.4% -68.7% 20% 20% -56.1%
all 5 -65.4% -68.7% 20% 20% -56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.7% 20% -56.1%
10% -71.7% 20% -60.3%
15% -74.4% 20% -64.2%
20% -76.9% 20% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$65 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Michel Pereira 24¢ 24¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 24¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.36 · official $104.36 (match) · 17 history records