Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
33 0x333b…62da sports 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$5,344 (+5%) realized +$5,344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%213W / 143L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$935est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$607
7 days+$607
14 days+$2,068
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3,721
crypto 17% −$46
other 1% +$373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
≤30d 63 +112.9% +92.6% 62% 46% -10.8%
≤90d 341 +27.1% +15.0% 59% 51% -5.7%
all 356 +27.5% +15.4% 60% 52% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 52% -5.0%
10% +4.4% 39% -14.1%
15% -5.7% 31% -22.4%
20% -15.0% 23% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$193 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses213 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$935
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage347d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $492 +$285 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $596 +$322 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $260 +$199 +76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $199 +$63 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $290 +$282 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $416 −$102 -24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $917 +$471 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $511 +$405 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $369 +$143 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $125 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $96 +$30 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $145 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $66 +$23 +34%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $99 +$222 +223%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $301 +$59 +20%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $496 −$431 -87%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $179 −$175 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 31 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $13 +$3 +22%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $634 −$622 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $253 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $210 +$32 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $155 +$24 +16%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $298 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 30 $359 −$12 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $341 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 30 $302 +$22 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $198 −$197 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $101 −$99 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $171 −$167 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1 −$1 -76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $500 +$80 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $297 −$272 -92%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $950 +$19 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $843 +$111 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $304 +$246 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $181 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $181 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $585 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $312 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $904 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $596 22h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 97¢ $455 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 55¢ $260 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $260 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $199 12d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $573 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $290 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $285 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster 8¢ $24 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster 4¢ $30 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $393 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 94¢ $1,387 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 61¢ $917 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $916 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 55¢ $511 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 99¢ $512 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 71¢ $369 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $150 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $141 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $125 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $96 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $27 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $56 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $55 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.00 · 855 history records