Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3338…b4c8 crypto 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$115 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate72%259W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$18
sports 19% −$43
other 6% −$55
weather 6% $0
politics 0% −$14
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 16% -18.3%
≤30d 63 -8.8% -17.5% 63% 17% -18.1%
≤90d 99 -17.4% -25.3% 61% 12% -18.2%
all 360 -1.9% -11.3% 72% 26% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 26% -10.8%
10% -19.8% 14% -19.4%
15% -27.5% 8% -27.2%
20% -34.6% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses259 / 101
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)360 / 363
History coverage169d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 68¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 63¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+70%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$2 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $29 −$27 -93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -20%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$4 -15%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$3 -14%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 $0 -3%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $6 −$6 -95%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $89 +$4 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$1 -21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $17 $0 +2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$4 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $40 −$3 -8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $9 +$1 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $19 −$9 -46%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $34 +$2 +5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $63 +$2 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $39 +$3 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$3 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $32 −$11 -36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $52 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 −$3 -14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $70 +$3 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $39 +$4 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $62 +$4 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $60 +$6 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$2 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 +$2 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 38¢ $9 41m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $72 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 6¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 84¢ $19 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 40¢ $4 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 84¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 81¢ $17 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $15 8h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 37¢ $6 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 4¢ $0 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 9h
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL Iraq 81¢ $10 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 72¢ $6 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 60¢ $4 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $40 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $51 10h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 37¢ $9 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.73 · official $94.73 (match) · 1556 history records