Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3335…e7d4
politics · 67 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$221 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$442 · open −$237
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$635
Realized+$442
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses48 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)55 / 67
History coverage69d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 12 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$20
14 days+$43
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $540 $334 −$206 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +147%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$18 +59%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 24 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 22 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026? May 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? May 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? May 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? May 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 13 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026? May 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? May 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? May 10 $30 +$3 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $10 +$178 +1785%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? May 08 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? May 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026? May 04 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? May 04 $30 +$5 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $580 +$115 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% +$114
world 28% +$31
tech 19% +$115
other 8% −$31
culture 1% $0
economics 1% −$20
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 21h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 34h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 34h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 34h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 12d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $10 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 21d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $60 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $30 26d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $5 26d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 26d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 26d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) BUY No 72¢ $40 27d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 32d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 62¢ $20 32d
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +36.5% +23.5% 100% 40% +2.1%
≤30d 24 +15.9% +4.9% 92% 29% -0.0%
≤90d 55 +38.4% +25.2% 87% 44% +9.2%
all 55 +38.4% +25.2% 87% 44% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.2% 44% +9.2%
10% +13.3% 24% -1.3%
15% +2.3% 13% -10.8%
20% -7.7% 9% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.63 · official $634.77 (match) · 133 history records