Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3335…fbd6 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$2,477 (+19%) realized +$2,503 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,362
7 days+$820
14 days+$1,438
30 days+$2,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$2,616
politics 1% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.0% +13.1% 38% 38% +16.8%
≤30d 31 +25.6% +13.7% 39% 39% +12.6%
≤90d 44 +18.8% +7.5% 36% 36% +6.5%
all 51 +23.2% +11.5% 37% 37% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.5% 37% +8.1%
10% +0.8% 37% -2.2%
15% -8.9% 37% -11.7%
20% -17.9% 37% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$238 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$2,503
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage103d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 12¢ 10¢ $201 $175 −$26 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $416 +$972 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $346 +$807 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $328 +$766 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $332 +$775 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $332 −$332 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $315 +$735 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $183 +$427 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $492 +$626 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $244 +$570 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $263 +$615 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $219 +$511 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 +$8 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $205 +$479 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $172 −$165 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $226 +$527 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $118 +$275 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $169 +$393 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $193 +$450 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 19 $163 +$379 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 19 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 15 $350 −$133 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $392 −$171 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $94 +$219 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $210 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $110 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $23 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $32 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $7 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $60 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $90 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $90 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $416 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.45 · official $175.46 (match) · 453 history records