Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3334…69b0
weather · 741 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$679 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$683 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized−$683
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses437 / 298
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)735 / 741
History coverage36d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 735 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$70
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 87¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 91¢ 93¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 92¢ 88¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? No 88¢ 85¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 85¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? No 85¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 19? No 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? No 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? No 70¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13? No 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1? No 82¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 16? No 80¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? No 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10? No 84¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? No 69¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $36 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Gentzsch vs. Hijikata: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $9 +$16 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +6%
Griekspoor vs. Zandschulp: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $83 −$82 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8? Jun 09 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 09 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $6 +$145 +2355%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Jun 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? Jun 07 $26 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% −$604
crypto 33% −$133
sports 1% +$24
other 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 82¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 82¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 84¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 88¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 84¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +30.5% +18.1% 58% 23% -12.5%
≤30d 378 +0.8% -8.8% 66% 30% -13.7%
≤90d 735 -1.9% -11.2% 59% 35% -14.3%
all 735 -1.9% -11.2% 59% 35% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 35% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 22% -22.5%
15% -27.5% 17% -30.0%
20% -34.6% 15% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.50 · official $102.51 (match) · 3500 history records