Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3334…b05e crypto 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-3%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%133W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$399
weather 8% −$69
other 1% −$14
tech 0% −$4
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -40.0% -45.7% 38% 24% -27.7%
≤30d 21 -40.0% -45.7% 38% 24% -27.7%
≤90d 339 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 32% -17.5%
all 356 -17.3% -25.2% 37% 31% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -17.0%
10% -32.3% 26% -24.9%
15% -38.9% 21% -32.2%
20% -44.9% 17% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses133 / 223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage92d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$9 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$53 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$5 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$14 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$51 +161%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$20 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$17 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$22 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 1? May 02 $83 −$63 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 01 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 01 $63 −$61 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 01 $79 +$9 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 01 $88 +$15 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 01 $26 −$23 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $31 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 01 $26 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 01 $52 −$11 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 01 $21 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $10 −$3 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 01 $11 −$9 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 01 $52 −$12 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 01 $52 +$17 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 01 $5 −$4 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 30 $143 +$14 +10%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 30 $147 −$13 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 30 $31 −$19 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 30 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $39 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1112 history records