Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
33 0x332f…80a4 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+9%) realized +$129 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$5
other 5% +$72
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +164.6% +139.4% 100% 100% +139.4%
≤30d 4 +81.9% +64.6% 75% 75% +95.4%
≤90d 37 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 41% -1.7%
all 37 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 41% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -1.7%
10% -28.2% 41% -11.1%
15% -35.1% 35% -19.7%
20% -41.5% 35% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$26 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage53d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B Julie&cie 29¢ 20¢ $84 $56 −$27 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 29 $32 +$53 +165%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $106 +$148 +140%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 +$59 +123%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 0.5 May 31 $21 −$21 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Korpatsch vs Wang May 27 $101 −$99 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 27 $37 +$64 +172%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian May 25 $43 −$43 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Zheng May 25 $14 +$29 +201%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner May 25 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $7 +$4 +57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Set 1 Winner: Ivashka vs Stewart May 22 $53 −$52 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) May 22 $23 +$30 +128%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner May 21 $21 −$21 -98%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway May 21 $23 −$23 -99%
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria May 20 $93 +$149 +159%
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo May 19 $48 +$45 +93%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 19 $22 +$27 +118%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 +$14 +94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 15 $11 +$10 +97%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $48 −$47 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $19 +$28 +145%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 10 $23 −$23 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 08 $26 −$26 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 07 $9 −$9 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro Leag BUY Julie&cie 29¢ $85 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $32 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $106 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $106 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $48 15d
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $21 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Luca Van Assche 25¢ $15 31d
Set 1 Winner: Korpatsch vs Wang BUY Wang 52¢ $101 33d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $101 33d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $37 33d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $11 33d
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 50¢ $43 34d
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Zheng BUY Chwalinska 33¢ $14 35d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $15 35d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 77¢ $11 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 35d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 29¢ $27 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 38d
Set 1 Winner: Ivashka vs Stewart BUY Stewart 45¢ $53 38d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) SELL MOUZ 100¢ $53 38d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 43¢ $23 38d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner BUY ASTRAL 45¢ $21 38d
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway BUY Norway 55¢ $23 38d
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austria BUY Austria 38¢ $93 40d
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo SELL Rina Saigo 91¢ $93 41d
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo BUY Rina Saigo 47¢ $20 41d
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo BUY Rina Saigo 47¢ $28 41d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $49 41d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $22 41d
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli BUY Tuco Tokkos 52¢ $23 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.22 · official $56.22 (match) · 56 history records