Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x332e…0747 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$137 (+4%) realized +$135 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%85W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$19
14 days+$159
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$56
other 3% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 55% -8.6%
≤30d 154 +1.4% -8.3% 55% 55% -6.0%
≤90d 154 +1.4% -8.3% 55% 55% -6.0%
all 154 +1.4% -8.3% 55% 55% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 55% -6.0%
10% -17.0% 54% -15.0%
15% -25.1% 47% -23.2%
20% -32.4% 37% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses85 / 69
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 157
History coverage15d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Grind Back 45¢ 46¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 43¢ 44¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 +$34 +114%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 21 $30 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 −$6 -20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$17 +57%
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $9 +$8 +90%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$31 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: FC Bayern Munchen (-8.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $27 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $14 +$8 +57%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff Jun 20 $30 +$9 +29%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $3 +$2 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$29 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $30 +$36 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$40 +134%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $30 +$29 +96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 182.5 Jun 19 $14 +$13 +89%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$23 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $30 +$16 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $61 −$10 -16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$23 +76%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$15 +50%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$25 +41%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$29 +97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$42 +140%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$10 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 43¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 45¢ $30 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $30 15h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 49¢ $30 17h
Spread: FC Bayern Munchen (-8.5) BUY FC Bayern Munchen 50¢ $30 17h
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $9 17h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 69¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 38¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 41¢ $27 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu BUY OG 62¢ $30 20h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 63¢ $14 30h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 68¢ $30 36h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff BUY QUAZAR 77¢ $30 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $30 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 38h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $3 38h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $3 38h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 40h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 64¢ $30 44h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY Clutchain 62¢ $30 44h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 58¢ $30 46h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $30 46h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $30 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 47¢ $30 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $30 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.51 · official $61.51 (match) · 260 history records