Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
33 0x332e…df71 sports 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$786 (+2%) realized +$826 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%164W / 221L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$1,042est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$1,176
14 days+$3,450
30 days+$1,544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$365
other 4% −$598
world 1% −$333
politics 1% −$71
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +118.9% +98.0% 56% 56% +19.7%
≤30d 155 +60.4% +45.1% 48% 46% -4.8%
≤90d 385 +34.2% +21.4% 43% 40% -11.5%
all 385 +34.2% +21.4% 43% 40% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.4% 40% -11.5%
10% +9.8% 38% -19.9%
15% -0.8% 37% -27.7%
20% -10.5% 35% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$96 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized+$826
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses164 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,042
Open positions2
Markets (closed)385 / 387
History coverage75d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Gabriela Ruse 36¢ 32¢ $368 $328 −$40 (-11%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Talia Gibson 24¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $328 +$200 +61%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 22 $129 −$57 -44%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $102 +$102 +100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $102 +$138 +135%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$74 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $2 +$29 +1845%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $153 +$148 +97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $112 −$110 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $36 +$71 +198%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $102 +$192 +188%
Bejlek vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $304 +$177 +58%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $409 +$545 +133%
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $462 −$44 -10%
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 16 $118 −$17 -14%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $336 −$34 -10%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Gauff/Pegula vs Potapova/Shnaider Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$111 +109%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $180 +$168 +94%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $447 +$340 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 14 $854 −$583 -68%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$117 +115%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $179 +$344 +192%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $153 +$359 +234%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $230 −$225 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $42 +$33 +78%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $109 +$123 +112%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $102 +$165 +162%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $101 +$94 +93%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $102 +$83 +82%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $359 +$16 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$71 +70%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $49 +$101 +205%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $692 +$1,465 +212%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $202 +$61 +30%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $205 −$113 -55%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 08 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $101 10h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $101 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens SELL Elise Mertens 94¢ $251 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 56¢ $152 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 36¢ $117 11h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $7 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 38¢ $34 34h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 37¢ $33 34h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 37¢ $33 34h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 38¢ $116 34h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 32¢ $39 35h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 32¢ $1 35h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $24 35h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $0 35h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $16 35h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $4 35h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 86¢ $43 35h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $20 35h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $1 35h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 81¢ $161 36h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $0 38h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $1 38h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $1 38h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $8 38h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $50 39h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $2 39h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 25¢ $33 39h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 29¢ $29 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.93 · official $328.93 (match) · 1227 history records