Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x332d…cf77 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+3%) realized +$59 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$139
other 27% +$235
world 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +46.3% +32.3% 38% 38% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +46.3% +32.3% 38% 38% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +46.3% +32.3% 38% 38% -9.6%
all 15 +44.0% +30.3% 47% 40% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.3% 40% -2.6%
10% +17.8% 40% -11.9%
15% +6.5% 40% -20.4%
20% -4.0% 40% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$68 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage226d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 −$8 -10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $74 +$57 +78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$75 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $136 −$28 -20%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $17 +$107 +613%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 −$8 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$171 +84%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$20 -40%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $34 +$106 +311%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 24 $152 +$8 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $200 +$107 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 21m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $73 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $82 31m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $131 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $74 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $177 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $104 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $136 29h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $124 30h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 13¢ $7 31h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 13¢ $10 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $101 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 40¢ $94 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $203 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 90¢ $374 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $31 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $140 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 3d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? SELL No $160 142d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY No $152 142d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $100 218d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $307 225d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 65¢ $200 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.85 · official $17.68 (match) · 30 history records