Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x332c…ae23 sports 314 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$323 (-3%) realized −$325 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%168W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$484
7 days−$484
14 days−$484
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$260
other 44% −$476
crypto 4% −$43
world 4% −$150
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.9% -14.9% 75% 38% -42.1%
≤30d 9 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 33% -42.1%
≤90d 103 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 41% -14.8%
all 306 -6.0% -15.0% 55% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 39% -13.6%
10% -23.1% 32% -21.9%
15% -30.5% 29% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 26% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses168 / 138
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)306 / 314
History coverage139d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 85¢ 86¢ $47 $47 +$1 (+1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Lotte Giants 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 52¢ 51¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears KT Wiz 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners Over 49¢ 49¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals No 50¢ 85¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $43 −$3 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $541 −$539 -100%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Kento Shiogai: 1+ goals Jun 14 $39 +$6 +16%
Keisuke Gotō: 1+ goals Jun 14 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $490 +$27 +5%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) May 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
FK Zorya Luhansk vs. FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv: O/U 2.5 May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RNK Veres Rivne win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FK Kolos Kovalivka win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $4 +$3 +84%
Will FK Karpaty Lviv win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 08 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 +$4 +180%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $2 $0 -12%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$3 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 2? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
FK Karpaty Lviv vs. FK LNZ Cherkasy: O/U 2.5 May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RNK Veres Rivne win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 1? May 02 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 27? Apr 30 $4 +$4 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 26? Apr 26 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Apr 26 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -56%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -95%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
KHL: Dinamo Minsk vs. Ak Bars Kazan Apr 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 08 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 07 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 07 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 07 $4 $0 +10%
Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? Apr 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $60 −$57 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 2? Apr 02 $71 +$68 +96%
Will FK Oleksandriya win on 2026-04-03? Apr 01 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $13 23m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $9 24m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $26 25m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 59¢ $10 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 54¢ $10 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 52¢ $10 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 65¢ $10 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 75¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 40¢ $39 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $43 2h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $3 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $4 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $5 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $42 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $37 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $12 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $53 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $0 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $50 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $233 9h
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $43 27h
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $43 27h
Keisuke Gotō: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $43 27h
Kento Shiogai: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $39 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $307 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.94 · official $108.94 (match) · 899 history records