Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
33 0x332b…793f crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,982 (-7%) realized −$2,980 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$508per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,640
7 days−$1,640
14 days−$1,640
30 days−$1,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$1,862
crypto 33% −$544
other 20% −$559
economics 9% −$3
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 81 -22.5% -29.9% 43% 17% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 17% -16.0%
10% -36.6% 14% -24.1%
15% -42.7% 11% -31.4%
20% -48.4% 10% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$68 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$998
Realized−$2,980
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage627d
Avg bet$508
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 57¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,322 −$1,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $347 −$340 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? Jan 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $950 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 14 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $1,156 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $1,501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 11 $3,764 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jan 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Greece vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jan 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Georgia vs. Spain end in a draw? Jan 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? Jan 10 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 8AM ET Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET Jan 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 10 $500 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 10 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 10? Jan 10 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $1,047 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $3,070 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $1,572 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 9? Jan 09 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 09 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $1,000 +$67 +7%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $2,100 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Romania end in a draw? Nov 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 15 $40 −$38 -96%
Wimbledon: De Minaur vs. Djokovic Jul 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 07 $2 $0 -3%
Wimbledon: Swiatek vs. Collins (W) Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon: Khachanov vs. Majchrzak Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in June? Jul 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 16? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +113%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? May 15 $1 +$1 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $89000 on Apr 25? May 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $509 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $506 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 45¢ $1,017 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $92 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $205 23h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 44¢ $305 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $256 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? BUY Down 98¢ $54 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $1,501 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1,503 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $950 157d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $100 157d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $105 157d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1,154 157d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,500 158d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $1,153 158d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,501 158d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,501 159d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1,156 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $2,657 159d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $2,660 160d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $300 160d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 160d
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 160d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $800 160d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $100 160d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $998.29 · official $998.29 (match) · 182 history records