Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x332a…98be other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$561 (+11%) realized +$561 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,536
7 days+$2,237
14 days+$2,237
30 days+$1,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,600
sports 42% +$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +92.2% +73.9% 50% 50% +88.8%
≤30d 11 +36.3% +23.3% 36% 36% +49.4%
≤90d 17 +59.4% +44.2% 35% 35% +46.0%
all 19 +46.4% +32.5% 32% 32% +28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.5% 32% +28.1%
10% +19.8% 32% +15.8%
15% +8.2% 32% +4.6%
20% -2.4% 32% -5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$811 vs −$214 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage155d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $556 +$1,553 +279%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $220 +$549 +249%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $334 +$1,084 +324%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $334 −$325 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $333 −$325 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $307 −$299 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $120 −$117 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$119 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $116 +$286 +246%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $334 −$326 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $225 +$510 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $227 −$222 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $113 +$883 +784%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $287 −$281 -98%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $86 −$84 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $218 −$213 -98%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Mar 07 $900 −$246 -27%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,108 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $222 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $333 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $770 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $118 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 23h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,418 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $334 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $334 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $333 47h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $142 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $165 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $120 15d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 23¢ $122 15d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $402 16d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $116 17d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $111 18d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $223 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann $8 29d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann $103 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $735 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $225 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $227 62d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $995 70d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 71d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $287 76d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 78d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $81 78d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 28¢ $118 78d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records