Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x332a…a06b culture 25 markets active 12h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13,615 (+26%) realized +$13,617 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,094per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days+$13,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$13,280
culture 1% +$49
other 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.1% -22.2% 20% 7% -11.9%
≤30d 23 -7.0% -15.8% 39% 22% +13.5%
≤90d 23 -7.0% -15.8% 39% 22% +13.5%
all 23 -7.0% -15.8% 39% 22% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 22% +13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 17% +2.7%
15% -31.2% 13% -7.3%
20% -38.0% 4% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,482 vs −$1 · ×1300.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×836.01 per $1 lost it wins $836.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$13,617
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2,094
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou Jun 23 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? Jun 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? Jun 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 22 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? Jun 22 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? Jun 22 $29 −$1 -4%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Jun 22 $29 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 19 $61 −$1 -1%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 19 $19 $0 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 09 $248 +$58 +23%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13,734 +$9,737 +71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32,407 +$1,061 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5,586 +$2,482 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $29 14h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? BUY Yes $0 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $3 17h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou BUY Yes $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? SELL Yes $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes $0 34h
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? SELL Yes $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $14 34h
Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? SELL No 93¢ $28 34h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $28 34h
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $10 35h
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 96¢ $29 35h
Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 35h
Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $14 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.14 · official $32.15 (match) · 212 history records