Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x332a…c9a2 sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 603d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,827 (+5%) realized +$10,074 · open −$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%92W / 124L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$860per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1,661est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$8,713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 603d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$7,976
other 29% +$22,073
politics 1% +$2,643
finance 0% −$651
crypto 0% +$444
world 0% +$918
culture 0% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 43% -17.0%
≤30d 59 -13.2% -21.5% 39% 39% -20.8%
≤90d 114 -14.0% -22.2% 37% 36% -1.5%
all 216 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 36% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 36% -0.5%
10% -17.8% 28% -10.0%
15% -25.7% 22% -18.7%
20% -33.0% 19% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +19% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$905 vs −$534 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$8,713
Realized+$10,074
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses92 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,661
Open positions2
Markets (closed)216 / 218
History coverage603d
Avg bet$860
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $6,990 $6,918 −$71 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Under 56¢ 51¢ $1,971 $1,795 −$176 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $377 +$572 +152%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $164 −$43 -26%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $170 −$32 -19%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $47 +$50 +106%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $246 −$240 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $120 −$117 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $6,588 +$4,162 +63%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $113 +$187 +165%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $12,111 −$11,897 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,934 +$1,886 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $10,202 −$10,147 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $8,207 −$8,050 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3,216 −$3,216 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $6,221 −$6,179 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,266 −$1,237 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $5,512 +$1,747 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,209 +$491 +12%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2,492 +$8,678 +348%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,173 −$3,173 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5,389 +$9,996 +186%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $356 +$659 +185%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +17%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $264 −$260 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $3,907 −$3,863 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,624 −$2,593 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $12,464 +$12,213 +98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5,941 +$2,241 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,440 −$3,440 -100%
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Leyton Rivera Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
ITF Gyula: Kolos Kincses vs Filip Drab Jun 17 $747 −$688 -92%
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major Jun 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $173 +$426 +247%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $67 +$434 +650%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $131 −$55 -42%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $814 −$167 -21%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $114 +$18 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $37 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,015 11m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $983 37m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $19 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $9 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $16 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $524 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $308 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,205 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $33 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $50 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 42m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 42m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 42m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $23 45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $6 50m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $791 54m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,990 54m
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $1,997 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $377 24h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 13¢ $33 27h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,713.08 · official $8,713.08 (match) · 1917 history records