Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3329…2f5c other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,568 (-31%) realized −$1,019 · open −$549
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%23W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$141
14 days+$81
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1,034
other 22% +$19
economics 7% −$281
finance 7% −$340
culture 4% −$202
sports 1% +$62
politics 1% +$248
crypto 1% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.9% +146.9% 100% 100% +146.9%
≤30d 39 -93.0% -93.7% 3% 3% -25.0%
≤90d 154 -23.5% -30.8% 12% 12% -21.8%
all 221 -37.9% -43.8% 10% 10% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 10% -32.2%
10% -49.2% 10% -38.6%
15% -54.1% 10% -44.6%
20% -58.6% 10% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$17 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$1,019
Unrealized−$549
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses23 / 198
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions29
Markets (closed)221 / 250
History coverage117d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Spread: France (-5.5) France 10¢ 9¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 26¢ 19¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-45%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 19¢ 9¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-53%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $75 $10 −$65 (-87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-62%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Spain 20¢ 6¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-67%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-72%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-59%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-63%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-84%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $75 $4 −$71 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $75 $3 −$72 (-96%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $120 $2 −$118 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 +$141 +173%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $2 +$50 +2397%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 12 $1 +$8 +805%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $6 +$18 +278%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $31 +$58 +184%
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait o May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 10¢ $26 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 21h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 15d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 15d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 15d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 18d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.29 · official $326.51 · 447 history records