Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3329…d4fc other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$149 (-16%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$115
14 days+$34
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$85
sports 44% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.5% +10.0% 60% 60% +42.4%
≤30d 19 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 37% -17.8%
≤90d 19 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 37% -17.8%
all 20 -10.7% -19.2% 40% 40% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 40% -17.3%
10% -27.0% 40% -25.2%
15% -34.0% 40% -32.4%
20% -40.5% 35% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$34 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage183d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $74 +$84 +114%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $36 +$18 +52%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $35 −$16 -44%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $44 +$38 +86%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 −$31 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$59 -59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 +$58 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $77 +$56 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$46 +180%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $43 −$20 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $58 +$24 +42%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 29 $5 +$5 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $158 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $54 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $35 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 10¢ $9 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $41 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 9d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $40 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $82 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $45 14d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $70 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 15d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $32 16d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $34 16d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $77 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $58 18d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 33¢ $33 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 32¢ $23 182d
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 14¢ $10 183d
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 36 history records