Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x331d…8846 weather 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$395 (+23%) realized +$391 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 42L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$498
7 days+$498
14 days+$498
30 days+$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +63.2% +47.6% 41% 33% +22.8%
≤30d 71 +59.7% +44.5% 41% 34% +26.0%
≤90d 71 +59.7% +44.5% 41% 34% +26.0%
all 71 +59.7% +44.5% 41% 34% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.5% 34% +26.0%
10% +30.6% 30% +13.9%
15% +18.0% 27% +2.9%
20% +6.4% 27% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$3 · ×8.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.74 per $1 lost it wins $5.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage23d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? No 40¢ 34¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Yes 15¢ 31¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $24 +$13 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 +$94 +1799%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $24 −$14 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 −$7 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $274 +$92 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $177 +$38 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 +$11 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $174 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $21 +$47 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $21 +$39 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $101 +$28 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $6 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $151 +$142 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $29 −$7 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 −$12 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $74 +$63 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$3 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 −$14 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$14 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$25 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $24 +$27 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$7 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 2¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 12¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 39¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 40¢ $21 4m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 18¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 76¢ $100 24m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 25m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 38m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 39m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 30¢ $9 39m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 32¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 91¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.68 · official $42.69 (match) · 256 history records