Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3319…977a
weather · 1121 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$451 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$456 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized+$456
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses601 / 522
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1123 / 1121
History coverage76d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 42 History 1123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$163
14 days+$162
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 31¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 11? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+456%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 21¢ 70¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+233%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Yes 7¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1328%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 11? Jun 13 $4 +$8 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 16? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 6? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +292%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 8? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February Jun 13 $1 +$5 +418%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27? Jun 13 $4 +$7 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 28? Jun 13 $2 −$6 -239%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 15? Jun 13 $0 +$8 +12552%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 6? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 18? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 29? Jun 13 $4 +$7 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 4? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -2368%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28 Jun 13 $4 +$8 +200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +200%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 13 $2 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17? Jun 13 $3 +$11 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12? Jun 13 $4 +$7 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 17? Jun 13 $4 +$8 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18? Jun 13 $2 +$16 +866%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 1? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29 Jun 13 $5 +$10 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 16? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 27 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 27? Jun 13 $4 +$7 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 37m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 +59.8% +44.5% 62% 53% +5.3%
≤30d 810 +45.1% +31.3% 56% 49% -10.7%
≤90d 1123 +39.7% +26.4% 54% 48% +3.3%
all 1123 +39.7% +26.4% 54% 48% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.4% 48% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here +14.3% 46% -6.6%
15% +3.3% 45% -15.6%
20% -6.9% 44% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $41.21 · 3500 history records