Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3319…bd86 crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 503d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,795 (+2%) realized +$1,795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate88%300W / 42L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$116
14 days+$311
30 days+$2,053
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,176
sports 0% −$15
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 5% -7.2%
≤30d 307 +3.6% -6.3% 92% 35% -6.9%
≤90d 324 +2.8% -7.0% 91% 35% -8.2%
all 342 +2.3% -7.5% 88% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 33% -8.2%
10% -16.3% 17% -17.0%
15% -24.4% 11% -25.0%
20% -31.8% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$185 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses300 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage503d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $304 +$75 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $18 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $17 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $18 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $81 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $300 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $56 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $300 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $33 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $120 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $304 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 691 history records