Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3317…c0fa world 163 markets active 20h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-4%) realized −$122 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate31%51W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$38
finance 20% −$4
crypto 12% −$18
other 7% −$32
sports 5% −$34
politics 4% −$4
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 14% -12.0%
≤30d 38 -6.8% -15.7% 29% 3% -11.1%
≤90d 162 -8.3% -17.0% 31% 12% -13.5%
all 162 -8.3% -17.0% 31% 12% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 12% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 3% -21.8%
15% -32.2% 2% -29.3%
20% -38.8% 1% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses51 / 111
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage67d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 32¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -48%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $40 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 10 $163 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $22 −$9 -39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $5 −$1 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $32 −$5 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $171 +$6 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $26 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $125 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $124 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $84 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $82 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $181 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -13%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 25 $2 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $5 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $20 −$3 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $51 +$3 +6%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 23 $4 −$3 -75%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $13 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $93 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $6 $0 -6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 20 $8 −$1 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 19 $64 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 19 $131 −$6 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 16 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $22 −$4 -17%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 13 $24 −$6 -23%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 13 $26 −$2 -6%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? May 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? May 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 08 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 24h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 27h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 28h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $39 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 2210 history records