Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3317…76b4 politics 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (444 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-4%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%91W / 172L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day444.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$2
other 27% $0
culture 12% $0
world 7% +$2
economics 6% $0
tech 4% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (444 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 +0.3% -9.3% 35% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 263 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 263 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 1% -9.4%
all 263 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover444.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses91 / 172
Open positions18
Markets (closed)263 / 281
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day444.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 +3%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $18 $0 +3%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $4.89 · 3500 history records