Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3317…166a sports 910 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$267 (-1%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%386W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$250
14 days+$304
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$495
other 10% +$438
crypto 8% −$380
weather 0% −$22
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 45% +7.8%
≤30d 76 -18.0% -25.9% 46% 42% -0.8%
≤90d 386 -19.7% -27.3% 41% 39% -12.5%
all 910 -7.8% -16.6% 42% 40% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -10.5%
10% -24.6% 37% -19.0%
15% -31.9% 32% -26.9%
20% -38.6% 26% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses386 / 524
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions0
Markets (closed)910 / 910
History coverage131d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 910 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$4 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $88 −$44 -50%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$12 -85%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $39 −$28 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$5 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$31 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $221 +$144 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $72 +$49 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $14 −$13 -88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $52 +$33 +64%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 −$18 -91%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $14 +$6 +44%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $59 +$56 +95%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $174 +$136 +78%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $263 +$109 +41%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$19 -62%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $12 +$8 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $28 +$23 +82%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $10 +$31 +307%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $23 −$21 -91%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $75 +$7 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $22 +$14 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 +$7 +60%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$44 +174%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner May 31 $19 −$19 -99%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $25 +$30 +119%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $24 +$11 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner May 21 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $45 −$15 -34%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $10 −$6 -63%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner May 21 $4 +$2 +53%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $50 −$45 -91%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Gr May 21 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner May 20 $24 −$9 -38%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy - Game 3 Winner May 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $98 +$59 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $44 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $88 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 12h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster $1 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 17¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 14¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 86¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $4 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 14¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $131 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 75¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 51¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $202 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 68¢ $163 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $121 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2210 history records