Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x3317…7cb6 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+13%) realized +$214 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$213
other 49% +$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+64.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +81.8% +64.4% 62% 62% +68.5%
≤30d 8 +81.8% +64.4% 62% 62% +68.5%
≤90d 8 +81.8% +64.4% 62% 62% +68.5%
all 8 +81.8% +64.4% 62% 62% +68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.4% 62% +68.5%
10% ← realistic here +48.7% 62% +52.4%
15% +34.3% 50% +37.7%
20% +21.2% 50% +24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$35 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.83 per $1 lost it wins $7.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $136 $133 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $204 +$536 +262%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $203 +$136 +67%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $153 −$10 -7%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $31 +$61 +200%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $351 −$45 -13%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $101 +$67 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $138 34m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $740 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 27¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 27¢ $102 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $200 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 85¢ $124 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $138 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 70¢ $139 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $203 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 13h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 69¢ $91 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 75¢ $101 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $168 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 54¢ $47 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 54¢ $101 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 46¢ $185 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $101 28h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 28h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.57 · official $133.57 (match) · 25 history records