Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3315…2494 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-6%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$444
world 2% +$1
sports 1% +$13
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -70.9% -73.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤30d 6 -70.9% -73.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤90d 6 -70.9% -73.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
all 81 -38.7% -44.5% 32% 31% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 31% -31.7%
10% -49.8% 25% -38.3%
15% -54.7% 21% -44.2%
20% -59.1% 17% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage120d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 07 $107 −$33 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 07 $63 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 07 $5 −$4 -83%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 07 $15 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 07 $22 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 07 $56 −$30 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$20 +199%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 07 $101 +$66 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 07 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 07 $111 −$79 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 07 $46 −$35 -77%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 07 $4 −$2 -42%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$14 +271%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 07 $25 −$15 -59%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 07 $60 −$17 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 07 $174 −$21 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 07 $86 −$40 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 07 $95 −$59 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 07 $61 −$20 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 07 $107 −$10 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 07 $125 +$32 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 07 $60 +$30 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 07 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 07 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 07 $28 +$4 +15%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $10 +$13 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 06 $24 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 06 $14 +$22 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 06 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Mar 06 $15 +$22 +144%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $40 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $29 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $46 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $9 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records