Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3315…bf06 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$5
other 19% −$1
sports 15% −$14
politics 14% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 25 +56.5% +41.6% 36% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 70 +19.1% +7.7% 26% 1% -9.8%
all 86 +13.1% +2.3% 29% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -7.5% 3% -18.7%
15% -16.4% 3% -26.6%
20% -24.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage535d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $55 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $59 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 +$4 +13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $21 −$7 -31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $59 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $87 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $151 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $39 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $71 −$4 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $76 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $3 $0 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $17 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $19 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $42 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $34 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $6 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $16 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.00 · 345 history records